A new survey from YouGov has suggested that 50% of the electorate have definite plans to vote in Thursday’s European Parliament election, much higher than previous polls have suggested. Even accounting for inaccuracies in the voting register this suggests a nominal turnout of 43-45%. If this is replicated on Thursday, turnout will be highest ever for a European Parliament election in the UK (the 38% who voted in the last European Parliament election in 2004 was the previous high watermark).

The survey was commissioned by Vote Match (www.votematch.co.uk) the quick and easy online tool designed to help people decide how to vote – by matching their views to the views of the parties running for election. The report goes on to suggest that the youngest age group is the least inclined to vote. Only 28% of 18-24 year olds said that they would definitely be casting their vote. In contrast, 65% of 55+ year olds have definite plans to do so.

The survey also found that:

• Only 11% of respondents were very confident that they understood the policy differences between the political parties standing in the European elections.
• Nearly a quarter of those people (24%) that are unlikely to vote have been put off by the expenses scandal. This is a particular factor amongst those aged 35-54 (16% of 18-24 year olds).
• 23% of those that are unlikely to vote will choose to abstain because they do not understand what issues the parties stand for (33% of 18-24 year olds).

In a statement on the poll results Peter Facey of Vote Match commented:

“If these figures are anywhere near accurate we are likely to see the highest turnout for the European Elections since they began in 1979 and the biggest boost in a non-Westminster election since the days of the poll tax in 1990. While this is encouraging, the generational divide is startling and it is clear that a majority of people are not confident about the policy differences of the major parties.

“The MPs’ expenses scandal has clearly had a major impact but again, there is a clear generational divide. Amongst young people, it is a lack of knowledge of the issues themselves that appears to be discouraging them from voting. There appears to also be a gender divide here, with women less put off by the expenses scandal than men.

“Vote Match has been designed specifically to meet this clear demand for more information about policy issues in the run up to elections. Tens of thousands of people have so far used the short quiz to help them decide how to vote with many more expected over the next 48 hours.”

Vote Match is an Unlock Democracy project.